An interesting trend is developing in Super Rugby Pacific with the new law variations encouraging a faster game, more fatigue and more tries.
We’re talking about the 30 seconds to form a scrum or lineout once a mark has been set, forensic video decisions by the TMO being made up in the box while the play still runs and so on.
The tangible spin-off has been nine of the 12 games to date producing 60 points or greater.
Both our Total Points bets in the opening two rounds have paid off well before full-time in a solid 9-from-12 start to the season for our BYB Super Rugby tips.
What does Super Rugby Round 3 look like? Let’s take a look!
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Rebels v NSW Waratahs
AAMI Park, Melbourne, Friday March 10th 7:35pm (AEDT)
The Rebels beat the Waratahs in this grudge match in both 2020 and 2021 at AAMI Park.
You’d say the Waratahs have certainly made the biggest improvements since but this is THE rivalry game in the eyes of the Rebels. The Rebels have lost 10 of their past 13 games on their home patch so “home ground advantage” is proving less bankable than for other clubs. That said, there have been a string of close games, including a meritorious 39-33 loss to the Hurricanes a week ago.
The Rebels scrapped together one try and eight miserable points in the two games to open 2022. They are averaging 30 per game with far slicker patterns of play and attack this season.
Their lineout is the most effective in the competition and they are one of just two teams with a 100 per cent success rate at scrums. Every team wants such set piece stability. They can certainly hurt the Waratahs.
The Tahs found some nice form to quell the Fijian Drua (46-17) last round. Clubbing backrow figure Langi Gleeson is living up to his wraps. Michael Hooper and Lachie Swinton balance the backrow.
Rebels backrow trio Brad Wilkin, Richard Hardwick and Josh Kemeny get no plaudits by comparison yet are proving highly productive. Hardwick had a terrific game against the Hurricanes. Like Wilkin, he is a pest in the best way possible.
Teenage finisher Max Jorgensen is a beauty but we fancy fellow winger Mark Nawaqanitawase to be scoring in this one.
Waratahs to win this in a close one.
The Total Points line is Over 57.5 at Ladbrokes at $1.83 which is a nice multiplier for multis with these two high-scoring teams.
Waratahs Win By 1-12 Points
$2.88 (3 Units)
ACT Brumbies v Queensland Reds
GIO Stadium, Canberra, Saturday March 11th, 7:35pm (AEDT)
This match has become the most feisty in Australian rugby over recent years. The Reds lead 5-4 in head-to-head games since the start of 2020. Some have been absolute classics and seven of those nine have been decided by a try or less.
The Brumbies have won 17 of their past 18 games in Canberra when facing Australian opposition. The only hiccup was the epic 40-38, stolen on the bell, by the Reds in 2021.
You can dissect this match-up any way you like but the big difference is in the tight five. Four Wallabies will start in the tight five for the Brumbies and zero for the Reds. That’s a big gulf in class that translates to the Brumbies just being that bit more efficient with their ball supply from scrums, lineouts and key big bopper skills.
The Brumbies kept the try-happy Blues pointless for the final 50 minutes of their excellent 25-20 win last weekend which you have to rate highly. It wasn’t just defending well but grabbing key turnovers and big-time scrambling.
Put under that sort of pressure, the Reds are still notoriously ill-disciplined and give away far too many penalties.
The Reds are putting out their strongest team of the season with aggressive journeyman Connor Vest adding grunt to their lock depth from the bench. Equally, the Queenslanders have Wallaby backs James O’Connor and Jock Campbell to add scoring punch from the bench.
It will be a belter of a battle in the backrow with Rob Valetini, Pete Samu and Rory Scott up against three point-to-prove Reds Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight and Liam Wright.
Reds rookie Tom Lynagh has had his name noted in Eddie Jones’ black book or rather A4 notepad. He has classical flyhalf skills so the contrast with Brumby Noah Lolesio will be fascinating to analyse.
You have to tip the Brumbies in another tight one.
Brumbies Win By 1-12 Points
$3.10 (3 Units)
Western Force v Moana Pasifika
HBF Park, Perth, Saturday March 11th 10:00pm (AEDT)
The Force were woeful by every metric against the Reds in Round 2 when they conceded 10 tries. You can’t explain that away by yellow cards although those man-down moments didn’t help.
This match in Perth will be a high-scoring affair if you take the hint of the only previous clash between the sides...48-28 to the Force last year.
The Pasifika team have strikepower everywhere but composure may be down a cog with leader and flyhalf Christian Lealiifano (concussion) out. Hawke’s Bay youngster Lincoln McClutchie steps up. The best name in Super Rugby is in the Moana Pasifika backrow with Miracle Faiilagi starting.
The Force are missing skipper Michael Wells (head knock) on the field but he has still been a part of delivering the strong messages about the Force sharpening up big time.
The Force will be better than their last-start 71-20 disaster. By how much is the question.
Moana Pasifika have lost all seven of their away games by an average of 22 points. A real coin flip this but Moana Pasifika might be good enough for a first win on the road.
Moana Pasifika to Win
$2.88 (2 Units)
More Round Three Betting Tips
Chiefs v Highlanders
FMG Stadium, Hamilton, Friday March 10th 5:05pm (AEDT)
Over 61.5 Points ($1.83) - Bet now at Ladbrokes
Fijian Drua v Crusaders
Churchill Park, Lautoka, Fiji, Saturday March 11th 1:35pm (AEDT)
Fijian Drua +16.5 ($1.91) - Bet now at Ladbrokes
Hurricanes v Blues
Sky Stadium, Wellington, Saturday March 11th 5:05pm (AEDT)
Blues –4.5 ($1.91) - Bet now at Ladbrokes
