Sunday football kicks off in Brisbane as the Bombers travel to the Gabba to take on the Lions. Can the Bombers cause another upset? Or will the Lions cement their place in the top four?
Check out our free preview for this game below, and check out BeforeYouBet’s AFL Tips page for previews on every game this season!
Brisbane vs Essendon Preview & Betting Tips
Gabba, Sunday July 10th, 1:10pm AEST
Brisbane
Injuries: Darcy Gardiner, Daniel Rich, Dayne Zorko, Jarrod Berry, Jaxon Prior (out) Harris Andrews, Callum Ah Chee, Dan McStay and Keidean Coleman (health & safety protocols)
In what has been a very good year on the injury front for the Lions, this week has been utter chaos with seven changes to the side that defeated the Bulldogs in Round 16. Daniel Rich, Dayne Zorko and Jarrod Berry are all out with hamstring injuries. Jaxon Prior is out with a quad strain, while Harris Andrews, Callum Ah Chee, Dan McStay and Keidean Coleman are all out through health & safety protocols.
Brisbane bounced back from a hiding against Melbourne in Round 15, with a 41 point victory over the Western Bulldogs. The Lions trailed at quarter time, but kicked 15 goals to 7 in the final three quarters to run away with a convincing win. Brisbane’s efficiency inside 50 was the separating in the game, converting 52% of inside 50’s to scores and 32% of inside 50’s to goals.
Brisbane have dominated the Bombers the last three times they’ve met with an average winning margin of 47 points. Despite having some key outs, the Lions attacking system will give some serious troubles to an Essendon backline that has consistently given up some massive scores.
Essendon
Injuries: Darcy Parish, Nik Cox, Tom Cutler, Archie Perkins, Devon Smith, James Stewart, Tex Wanganeen
After an injury plagued season, the Bombers are starting to see their injury list shortening, with Andrew McGrath set to return from a groin injury this week. Archie Perkins suffered a calf strain during training last week which will see him miss at least this weekend as well. Darcy Parish is a huge out with a calf strain and is potentially set to miss four weeks.
After losing to a West Coast side that had only one win from their first thirteen games, Essendon produced a stirring performance to run over the top of the Swans in a nine point victory at the MCG. The Bombers have knocked off two top eight sides in three weeks, and have begun to start showing signs of the football that saw them play finals last season.
The Bombers work around the contest has lifted dramatically in the last month, recording +34 contested possessions and +23 tackles across their last four games. If Essendon are going to have a chance in this clash, their midfield needs to continue their strong contested brand.
Match Prediction
Essendon’s first three wins of the season saw horrendous follow up performances, with a 48 point loss to Fremantle in round 4, a 58 point loss to Sydney in Round 9 and a loss to a 1-12 West Coast side in round 15. With Brisbane having so many changes the line is the best market to go with, rather than the 40+ that would’ve been a near certainty with a full strength outfit.
Daniher and Hipwood have a major height advantage against Laverde and Zerk-Thatcher, and if they get enough supply inside 50 the Lions should be able to kick a big score. Brisbane have matched up well against Essendon in the last three years, and they shouldn’t have any issues getting to a comfortable victory.
Lions -22.5
$2.00 (1 Unit)
Prop Bets
Despite missing five games through injury, Joe Daniher is still putting together a quality season, kicking 25 goals. Daniher is going to have a significant height advantage against Jayden Laverde and has kicked two goals in both of his two games so far against his former side. Daniher has had over four scoring shots at goal in each of his last three games and has kicked 3+ goals in six of his ten games this season.
Joe Daniher 3+ Goals, $1.98 with Ladbrokes
Zach Merrett was best on ground against Sydney and with Darcy Parish out, his disposal numbers will increase in the next month. Merrett has averaged 29 disposals per game in 2022 and has record disposal tallies of 31, 35 and 35 in his last three games in 20 minute quarters against the Lions.
Zach Merrett 30+ Disposals, $2.00 with Ladbrokes
Lachie Neale has absolutely dominated Essendon since he moved to the Brisbane Lions, with 41, 38, 33 (shortened quarters) and 40 disposal performances in his last four games against the Bombers. Essendon haven’t tagged him and likely won’t this weekend, setting up Neale for another massive outing.
Lachie Neale 35+ Disposals, $2.10 with Ladbrokes
