What an end to the 2022 season! Round 23 had it all. The Bulldogs did enough to overcome the Hawks, before Carlton once again blew a winning opportunity as the Pies crushed their dreams of finals by a solitary point. You couldn't have scripted a more dramatic end to the season. At the pointy end, Geelong are going into the finals as the team to beat, while Melbourne, Sydney and Collingwood have secured the double chance.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 23 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 23 Overview
It's going to be an interest end to the 2022 Brownlow Medal count. It's likely that Lachie Neale misses out on votes in a hefty loss, despite a solid game. Those votes will most likely go to Melbourne's Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, but are they going to be close enough to reach Neale on the final leaderboard? Patrick Cripps also had a massive game. Eventhough the Blues lost, it seems likely that Cripps will be voted best afield, but he may also be too far back now to challenge.
We can't wait for Brownlow night!
AFL Round 23 Brownlow Votes
Brisbane 8.9.57 def by Melbourne 18.7.115
A horrible showing by the Lions as the Demons gave them an absolute mauling on the eve of the finals. Clayton Oliver (30 disposals, 13 clearances), Christian Petracca (23 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) and Angus Brayshaw (27 disposals, 6 clearances) are going to contend for the votes, while Bailey Fritsch (13 disposals, 6 marks, 4 goals) and Kysaiah Pickett (11 disposals, 4 goals) were lively up forward. Lachie Neale’s stats look ok with 29 disposals, 6 tackles in a head-to-head battle with Brayshaw, but had little influence on the outcome. Will it be enough to hold onto the Brownlow lead?
Clayton Oliver - 2.5
Christian Petracca - 2.5
Angus Brayshaw - 1
GWS Giants 10.9.69 def by Fremantle 13.11.89
Freo trailed the Giants for most of the day, but got themselves in front when it mattered to end a disappointing year for GWS. Caleb Serong (32 disposals, including 15 contested, and 1 goal) was strong once again while Will Brodie (30 disposals, 7 tackles), David Mundy (30 disposals) and Andrew Brayshaw (25 disposals, 2 goals) were also very good. Michael Walters provided the spark up forward with 14 disposals, 6 marks and 3 goals. Sam Taylor was a force for the Giants in defence with 20 disposals and 12 marks to be a stand out.
Caleb Serong - 3
Will Brodie - 2
Sam Taylor - 1
North Melbourne 6.11.47 def by Gold Coast 16.18.114
It’s been a big week for North Melbourne with the announcement of their new coach for 2023, but season 2022 ended with another thrashing as the Suns completed their best ever season. David Swallow was immense with 33 disposals, including 18 contested, 9 marks, 9 clearances and a goal. Noah Anderson (30 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Ben Ainsworth (24 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) were influential while Alex Sexton enjoyed himself up forward with 6 goals from 14 disposals. Aidan Corr (28 disposals, 9 marks) and Curtis Taylor (25 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) were best for the Roos.
David Swallow - 2.5
Alex Sexton - 2.5
Ben Ainsworth - 1
Geelong 19.17.131 def West Coast 7.4.46
The Cats are purring nicely into the finals as the #1 contender as they thrashed the Eagles in Patrick Dangerfield’s 300th game. The Cats were solid all over the ground with numerous contributors. Mark Blicavs (25 disposals, 16 hitouts), Joel Selwood (28 disposals, 2 goals), Tom Hawkins (17 disposals, 9 marks, 4 goals) and Tyson Stengle (18 disposals, 4 goals) were among their best. Shannon Hurn (32 disposals, 10 marks), Liam Duggan (24 disposals, 11 marks) and Bailey Williams (25 disposals, 16 hitouts) tried hard for the Eagles.
Mark Blicavs - 3
Joel Selwood - 1
Tom Hawkins - 1
Tyson Stengle - 1
Essendon 11.9.75 def by Richmond 21.15.141
After the turmoil at Essendon during the week, it was no surprise to see the Tigers spank them at the MCG to bring Ben Rutten’s coaching tenure to a crashing halt. Dion Prestia was relentless with 31 disposals, 7 marks, 5 clearances and a goal to be best on ground, while Tom Lynch was a star up forward with 5 goals from 19 disposals and 9 marks before being iced up in the final quarter. Zach Merrett (37 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) and Darcy Parish (28 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) tried hard for the Bombers.
Dion Prestia - 3
Tom Lynch - 2
Zach Merrett - 1
Port Adelaide 16.15.111 def Adelaide 7.13.55
The Power romped away from the Crows and if it wasn’t for the slow start to the season, they would probably be quite dangerous in finals. Connor Rozee won the Showdown Medal with a scintillating display with 34 disposals, 8 tackles, 5 clearances and a goal. Ollie Wines (35 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal), Karl Amon (31 disposals, 1 goal) and Zak Butters (26 disposals, 8 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) were dominant in the middle, while Todd Marshall was a force up forward with 4 goals from 16 disposals and 10 marks.
Connor Rozee - 3
Ollie Wines - 2
Karl Amon - 0.5
Zak Butters - 0.5
Hawthorn 10.4.64 def by Western Bulldogs 12.15.87
The Bulldogs got a scare but did enough to put themselves into the eight, and ultimately, win that coveted finals berth by just 0.6% over Carlton. Josh Dunkley (29 disposals, 9 marks, 9 tackles, 8 clearances) was best for the Dogs, with Adam Treloar (25 disposals, 10 tackles, 1 goal) and Lachie Hunter (23 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) providing good support. James Sicily will be in the thick of the Brownlow votes for his 33 disposals with 17 marks, while Blake Hardwick (26 disposals, 14 marks) also received plenty of ball.
Josh Dunkley - 3
James Sicily - 2
Adam Treloar - 1
Carlton 10.14.74 def by Collingwood 11.9.75
Sometimes, it’s a cruel game. Collingwood have denied the Blues a spot in the AFL finals by the barest of margins in another exhilarating finish. Carlton won the game in almost every area, except on the scoreboard. Patrick Cripps was a star with 35 disposals, 5 tackles and 12 clearances, with Adam Cerra (27 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 2 goals) not far behind. Sam Docherty (29 disposals, 7 marks, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was also very good, while the twin towers of Charlie Curnow (17 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) and Harry McKay (16 disposals, 10 marks, 2 goals) stood tall, even if they couldn’t kick straight. Darcy Moore (24 disposals, 9 marks) and Josh Daicos (28 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles) were best for the Pies.
Patrick Cripps - 3
Adam Cerra - 2
Darcy Moore - 0.5
Josh Daicos - 0.5
St Kilda 11.8.74 def by Sydney 13.10.88
The Saints pushed them all the way, but the Swans did enough to win to secure a double chance in the finals. James Rowbottom (24 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Isaac Heeney (23 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) were best for the Swans while Will Hayward hit the scoreboard with 3 goals from his 15 disposals and 8 marks. For the Saints, Jack Steele (27 disposals, 10 marks, 9 tackles, 1 goal), Ben Long (27 disposals, 17 marks, 1 goal) and the retiring Dan Hannebery (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) were all good contributors while Max King had his kicking boots on today with 5 goals straight from 12 disposals and 7 marks.
Isaac Heeney - 3
James Rowbottom - 2
Ben Long - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
