A round full of upsets has left a few of our Brownlow contenders high and dry in our Round 17 Brownlow vote predictions. Marcus Bontempelli and Ollie Wines might be lucky to poll a vote, while Darcy Parish was well held. The movers and shakers were St.Kilda's Jack Steele who has firmed in Brownlow betting markets, along with Christian Petracca, and Zach Merrett. The interesting one is Carlton's Sam Walsh. The Blues lost to the Cats in Round 17 but Walsh was arguably the best player on the ground - can he pick up three votes in a losing effort? If so, he's one to watch as he's now into the Top 5 of our Brownlow Medal leaderboard.
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 17 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 17
Port Adelaide 8.7.55 def by Melbourne 12.14.86
Melbourne were superb as they controlled the game to defeat the Power and confirm their place towards the top of the ladder. Christian Petracca was outstanding with 33 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles, 7 clearances and 3 goals in a clear best-on-ground display. He’ll be firming in the Brownlow betting markets. Clayton Oliver (31 disposals, 11 clearances) was also very good, while Tom McDonald (19 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals) was the leading forward on the ground. Ollie Wines (33 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal), Karl Amon (28 disposals, 8 marks, 5 tackles, 1 goal) and Travis Boak (25 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) tried hard for the Power.
Christian Petracca - 3
Tom McDonald - 2
Clayton Oliver - 0.5
Ollie Wines - 0.5
Essendon 11.18.84 def Adelaide 2.9.21
A pretty awful game for Friday night football saw the Bombers run out comfortable winners as Adelaide posted their lowest ever score. There weren’t obvious stand out players, but Zach Merrett (35 disposals, 5 clearances) was busy as usual, while Mason Redman (25 disposals, 11 marks) and Nick Hind (24 disposals, 10 marks) were good across half back. Archie Perkins impressed up forward and may be a chance for a Rising Star nomination for his 18 disposals and 3 goals. For the Crows, Rory Laird (33 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances) and Paul Seedsman (27 disposals, 10 marks) tried hard, while Harry Schoenberg kept Darcy Parish to just 19 disposals while picking up 20 disposals, 7 tackles and a goal for himself.
Zach Merrett - 3
Mason Redman - 1
Nick Hind - 1
Archie Perkins - 1
Hawthorn 6.10.46 def by Fremantle 16.12.108
The Hawks were never in it as the Dockers were far too good in Launceston to move into the top eight. Sean Darcy was dominant in the ruck with 25 disposals, 9 marks, 27 hitouts and 5 clearances to set it up for the small brigade. Nat Fyfe (31 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) was back to his best, while David Mundy (30 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals), Caleb Serong (30 disposals, 10 clearances) and Andrew Brayshaw (32 disposals, 9 marks) all won plenty of ball. Rory Lobb may also be a chance for votes with 4 goals from 13 disposals and 8 marks. For the Hawks, Tom Mitchell (39 disposals, 5 tackles, 7 clearances) won plenty of ball, while Lachie Bramble (27 disposals, 6 marks) played his best game for the club.
Sean Darcy - 3
Nat Fyfe - 2
David Mundy - 0.5
Rory Lobb - 0.5
Carlton 5.14.44 def by Geelong 10.10.70
It wasn’t a pretty contest at the G where a wayward Carlton allowed the Cats to get away with a scrappy victory. Zach Tuohy (24 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals), Tom Stewart (25 disposals, 12 marks) and Cam Guthrie (28 disposals, 5 tackles, 6 clearances) were good for the Cats but best on ground may be Carlton young gun Sam Walsh who had 36 disposals, 8 marks and 2 goals.
Sam Walsh - 3
Zach Tuohy - 2
Tom Stewart - 1
Brisbane 8.15.63 def by St.Kilda 14.11.95
The Saints continue to march on and now only sit outside the top eight on percentage after a stunning win over the fancied Lions. Jack Steele led from the front with 32 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances and 2 goals and he’s probably the biggest mover of the round in Brownlow betting markets. He was well supported by Luke Dunstan (29 disposals, 6 clearances) and Zak Jones (26 disposals, 10 clearances), while Max King (13 disposals, 10 marks, 3 goals) was impressive in the air. Lachie Neale (31 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) tried hard on a poor day for the Lions.
Jack Steele - 3
Zak Jones - 2
Luke Dunstan - 1
GWS Giants 9.10.64 def by Gold Coast 10.5.65
A whacky Sunday of results was started by the Suns upsetting the Giants by one point in windy conditions in Ballarat. Touk Miller continued his incredible season with another monster game with 35 disposals, 14 tackles, 11 clearances and 2 goals = 3 Brownlow votes. Brandon Ellis (41 disposals, 6 marks) and David Swallow (27 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) were busy, while Chris Burgess (17 disposals, 38 hitouts, 7 marks, 1 goal) was a surprising winner in the ruck. Jacob Hopper (41 disposals, 5 tackles, 12 clearances) was excellent for the Giants, while Josh Kelly (27 disposals, 10 tackles, 7 clearances) and Toby Greene (21 disposals, 3 goals) were also good.
Touk Miller - 3
Brandon Ellis - 2
Jacob Hopper - 1
Western Bulldogs 8.12.60 def by Sydney 11.13.79
The Swans put their name into the premiership contenders conversation with a big upset over the ladder-leading Bulldogs. Jake Lloyd (33 disposals, 9 marks), Callum Mills (31 disposals, 9 marks) and Jordan Dawson (26 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) were the standouts for the Swans. Bailey Smith (27 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Caleb Daniel (30 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) were best for the Dogs while TIm English (22 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles, 21 hitouts, 1 goal) battled hard in the ruck. No votes for the Bont this week!
Jake Lloyd - 2
Callum Mills - 2
Jordan Dawson - 2
Richmond 11.5.71 def by Collingwood 13.9.87
A scintillating seven-goal blitz in the final quarter saw the Pies pinch victory and leave the Tigers’ finals hopes on the brink of disaster. Taylor Adams (31 disposals, 10 tackles, 10 clearances, 1 goal), Jack Crisp (33 disposals, 10 marks) and Jordan De Goey (29 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) were enormous while Brodie Grundy (22 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 40 hitouts, 1 goal) was back to his best. Jayden Short (31 disposals) was best for the Tigers but there wasn’t much else to get excited about.
Taylor Adams - 3
Jack Crisp - 1
Brodie Grundy - 1
Jordan De Goey - 1
West Coast 8.12.60 def by North Melbourne 10.10.70
A round of upsets continued on a rare Monday night as the Roos were too tough for the Eagles in the wet. Jaidyn Stephenson put in a stunning game with 38 disposals, 10 marks and a goal to be best on ground, with Jy Simpkin (32 disposals, 8 marks), Jack Ziebell (27 disposals, 6 marks) and Ben Cunnington (26 disposals, 8 marks, 5 tackles, 1 goal) all brilliant. Cam Zurhaar was electric up forward and could have kicked a bag but ended with 2.6 from 16 disposals and 6 marks. Nic Naitanui (20 disposals, 36 hitouts, 11 clearances) tried to carry the Eagles home but didn’t receive enough support.
Jaidyn Stephenson - 3
Jy Simpkin - 2
Nic Naitanui - 0.5
Jack Ziebell - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
