Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Ballarat this Saturday, November 23rd.
The Ballarat Cup headlines the 10-race card for the club's standalone meeting.
Check out @Tim_Tips' race-by-race preview below. You can also check out our race-by-race preview of Railway Stakes day at Ascot HERE!
2019 Ballarat Cup Day Preview & Betting Tips
Best Bet: Race 2 - (3) Bam's On Fire
Best Value Bet: Race 1 - (18) Neurotic
A field of 15 runners to start the day, and that theme continues throughout the rest of the meeting. I'll be looking for a few at value, starting off with (18) Neurotic here in the first at $17. She was second emergency but gains a run with a few scratchings. She's a mare from the Danny O'Brien stable with Craig Williams to ride. A lot of these horses have been running during the carnival and are dropping back in distance, but this mare comes into this first up from a spell. She's won two of her four first up runs previously and this stable is absolutely flying, not to mention Craig Williams is too. O'Brien has had six runners at Ballarat this season for five top-two finishes. Something small at the big odds.
(3) Bam's On Fire looks the best bet on the card. She was super last preparation, recording three wins and a 3rd from four starts. That 3rd was in Listed company down the straight at Flemington behind Gytrash, which is very good form for a race like this. She's got a good first up record, has won three from five at the distance, gets a very useful claim for Teo Nugent and looks quite clearly the one to beat. (1) Big Effort has a terrific record both first up and at the distance. Can go well.
(4) Defibrillate looks a very progressive stayer, with four wins from five career starts. He made a good start to his Australian career with victory at Moe and he followed that with another good win at Moonee Valley last start. The distance is no issue at all for him and Patrick Payne has his stable going particularly well, so he rates as the one to beat in a field that has a long tail.
Two-year-old race featuring just four of the 11 runners with any exposed form. I'll stick to what worked over the carnival and that's following stables that usually go well in these juvenile races. In this case, I'll be following the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig team and Gai Waterhouse. The Lindsay Park team have (7) La Girl going around, who finished 4th to her stablemate down the straight at Flemington on debut, while Gai has a runner at $21 in the form of (4) Chocolate Kisses. Something on both.
Value: (4) Chocolate Kisses $21
Going to take a punt on Mitch Freedman's colt (6) Zorro's Dream here. He was good on debut when 2nd to Diasonic and he backed that up with a dominant win at Kyneton last time out. This is his home deck. We saw Mitch Freedman and Ben Melham team up with an impressive winner at Moonee Valley last night, and they've combined 14 times this season for four wins and seven placings. That's a very solid record and suggests that when Melham is booked, it's generally for a reason. (1) Can't Be Done was good first up behind Garner, which is a good form line. We've already referenced Danny O'Brien's record at Ballarat and the form of him and Craig Williams. He'll be right in the finish. I think the value is (5) Rocking Eagle, who won on debut and then ran 2nd to Oasis Girl last start. That Oasis Girl form line is very good so he should measure up here at each way odds.
Value: (5) Rocking Eagle $8.50
Keen to stick with (1) Bumper Blast here. He was backed as if they already knew the result at Moe two starts ago and he won by about the length of the straight. He then went to Flemington last start in the greys race and proved he had a bit of class on his side, winning that race impressively at just his third career start. Trainer Rob Hickmott said his gallop during the week was the best he's seen from the horse, so he's potentially improved and if that's the case, he'll take plenty of beating here despite the weight and the barrier.
Another big field and a wide open race. (17) Adversary gets a run here as the emergency. He's lightly raced but he's shown plenty of ability in his eight starts, with three wins and two placings. He was good when running 2nd first up at Geelong and I think he can run a good race here at $13. If you look back to last prep, he beat Street Sheikh comfortably and then ran 2nd to Fidelia, which is good enough form to be competitive in this. He gets in with 54kg and the topweight is carrying 62kg, so he gets a decent swing in his favour. Keen to back him each way.
Race 8 - Ballarat Cup (Market)
The Ballarat Cup looks a wide open race. (1) Fifty Stars was beaten a nose in Group 1 company two starts ago, before being beaten 3.3L by Magic Wand in Group 1 company again last start. This is a big drop back in grade compared to those races, so if he brings that form here, he'll go very well. (5) Dr Drill was the last-start winner of the Cranbourne Cup and he won in Sydney prior to that. He's racing very well and is undefeated at this distance. Craig Williams retains the ride on him and draws barrier 1. Gets in well with 56kg and is sure to go close again. I was keen on two at a bit of value but one has been scratched, which leaves my main bet in the race as (12) Double You Tee, a horse that's been very good to me! He's had seven starts this prep for five wins and two 2nd placings. He was beaten a nose in the Kyneton Cup last start. Pacodali ran 3rd in that race and then came out and won a G3 at Sandown last weekend, so the form out of the Kyneton Cup actually looks reasonable. He just always shows up this horse so I'll go in with him again at each way odds.
(12) Double You Tee E/W
$9.00
I'm going to stick with (7) King Of Hastings today. He's not done a great deal wrong so far in his career, with two wins and three 2nds from five starts. Two starts back he ran 2nd to Super Seth, and he was only beaten narrowly at Moonee Vally last start. He's had two months between runs and a trial in between. Anthony Freedman has had three runners at Ballarat this season for three top-two finishes, and Craig Williams is booked to ride this horse today. I don't think there's any doubt he'll go very close.
(7) King Of Hastings
$4.60
Going to take a little punt on the WA horse (1) Great Again, who makes his Victorian debut for trainer Lindsey Smith. This horse has nine wins from 20 career starts in the West, and didn't finish out of the top two from five starts last prep. He's got a good first up record and he's won four of his five starts at the distance. He races on pace, so he'll jump and go straight forward from the inside gate. The booking of 3kg apprentice Thomas Stockdale might suggest he may need the run, but we've seen how strong the WA form has proven all carnival, so I'll take the punt on him here.
