Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Derby Day in at Flemington on Saturday, November 4th, which kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival!
We have a monster nine-race card here, headlined by FOUR Group 1’s – the Coolmoore Stud Stakes, Myer Classic, VRC Derby and Kennedy Mile. We also have two Group 2’s and three Group 3’s to make up the rest of the card.
The track will start as a Good 4 with the rail true. It’s hard to predict if any bias will be in play so it will be important to keep an eye on the early races.
In Episode 7 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Flemington and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Friday and Saturday! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have betting tips and comments for every race below to kick off the biggest week on the Australian racing calendar!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 Rich Charm EW
Best Value: Race 6 Flying Jess / Heavens Above / Prompt Response
Race 1
After the moral of the race Kaonic was scratched this has become extremely open. I could make a case for a minimum of eight horses. The two I’ve landed on are OCTABELLO and BEAU GESTE. Octabello won his first two races, including an impressive first up win over 1400m at this track, before running a luckless 8th behind Snitzepeg last start. He was winding up from the back of the field before running into backsides and going to the line under a hold. He’ll need a good ride from barrier 2 as he typically settles back in the field, but the extra 200m suits. This race does look on paper as If it could be run at a strong tempo, which will only help Octabello. $7.50 is a nice price. I’m prepared to give BEAU GESTE another chance. He was caught three-wide the trip last start behind Snitzepeg and fought on to only be beaten 2.45L. Two starts ago he was also caught three-wide the trip when 3rd behind Viridine, which I think is a good form line (see Coolmoore preview). He should be able to get a lovely run in midfield from barrier 3 today which will help him at his first try at a mile. $9.50 about him. SNITZEPEG has won his past two and from barrier 6 he will get absolutely every chance with a nice run on speed. LEVENDI was going to be heading towards the Derby but chose to stay at 1600m here after enduring a tough run in the Guineas. He gets a huge jockey change with Melham taking over from Darmanin and although I’ve got no real knock on the horse, he’s just a bit short at $3.60 now for mine. I wouldn’t be dismissing either of the Snowden horses – HYPNOTIST and ALMIGHTY – at big odds. This is when the Snowden horses in Melbourne really come to the fore and they’ll be spot on for this race. Hard to be confident here so we’ll start with two at good each way prices.
TIP: Octabello EW / Beau Geste EW
Race 2
There’s a few I’m interested in here. BRING ME ROSES was dominant last start over 1600m at this track and now steps out to 2000m. The way she put away her rivals last start suggests the extra ground will only suit and the wide barrier is probably a good thing because it will allow her clear running in the straight. Tony McEvoy is glowing in his reports of her and she will be tough to beat, but at $3.80 I can only back her as a saver bet. I’ll be looking at backing a few at bigger odds. The first of those is RIMRAAM who ran 2nd to Pinot last start over 2000m. The fact she’s had that run at 2000m is a positive, and it looks a good form line. Kerrin McEvoy takes over here which is a huge positive, and the horse continues to step up when asked. Never finished outside the top two and should go well again. Keen to have something on at $9. The other at big odds that interests me is CABIERRO. This filly ran 3rd on debut to Temple Of Bel, who is a hugely progressive filly that came out and won again at her next start. Cabierro also came out and won her next start, winning easily over 1600m. From the wide barrier I’d expect her to go forward, which isn’t so much of an issue because there looks to be a distinct lack of pace in the race. Happy to have something on at $21. PRES DE TOI is the likely leader in the race, and can’t be dismissed at $51 due to that lack of pace. I’m terrified of TEODORA who had an impossible task last start when trying to circle out wide on a Caulfield track that had a very hot rail. HIYAAM is another to include from the good draw up on pace. Backing Rimraam and Cabierro mainly, but will cover bets on Bring Me Roses, Teodora and Pres De Toi.
TIP: Rimraam EW / Cabierro EW
Race 3
Interesting race but it is one I’ll be very cautious in because it’s the first straight race of the carnival and we have no idea how the track is going to play at this stage. If SHEIDEL was at her best she’d win this but I just don’t think she’s at her best this prep. David Hayes was very bullish about her last start and she was pretty disappointing. She does drop back to mares’ grade for the first time this prep, and if the rail is hot she will just jump straight to the front and be hard to catch, but I’ll take her on today. SAVANNA AMOUR will also likely slide across and lead. She drops back from 1400m to 1100m which is more her go and I’ll probably have a penny on at the $14 available. The two I’ll mainly be backing are ZESTFUL and LAKE COMO. Zestful has had a luckless preparation in Sydney. First up she never saw daylight, second up she never saw daylight, and last start she was trapped three-wide the trip before battling on to run 2nd behind the very talented White Moss. Her five wins have all been over 1100m-1200m so she loves this distance. Kerrin McEvoy takes over today; she’ll need some luck from barrier 2 but she’s a live chance $9. LAKE COMO is a track specialist and races best fresh – she is undefeated first up from three attempts. First up last prep she bolted in down the straight to win by 3L. Her record suggests she’s a touch better suited over 1200m but she’s won over 1100m as well so it’s not really a big concern. This is probably her biggest test but it looks a deliberate plan to target this race first up. Happy to back at $8. I’d suggest CONCEALER is the smokey in the race and possibly best value at $17. CRYSTAL DREAMER can go well, as can LYUBA and NIETA. At the odds we can back a few runners here for a decent result, but as mentioned, bet cautiously because this is the first straight race.
TIP: Lake Como / Zestful EW
Race 4
Tough race, with the winner granted automatic entry into the Melbourne Cup. I’ve landed on ALOFT with HARLEM the big danger. Aloft started favourite in the Herbert Power Stakes last start when he led and got his tongue stuck over the bit, choking down and finishing 31L off the winner. Put a line through that run and look back to his run two starts ago behind Melbourne Cup favourite Almandin over this track and distance. Draws well and looks a good each way bet at $5.50. HARLEM was single-figure odds in the Caulfield Cup, but was just found out by the brutal tempo. Before that he finished midfield in the Bart Cummings behind Amelie’s Star over this track and distance. His peak performance rates better than any runner in this field, and from barrier 4 he gets absolutely every chance here. He needs to win this to get into the Cup and he’s in the right stable to do that. No knock. VENGEUR MASQUE comes off a solid win in the Geelong Cup but I’d prefer soft ground for him. The same can be said for KELLSTORM who ran 3rd in the Bart Cummings two starts ago and has a great record at this distance. ALWARD failed last start but he will improve significantly back on firm ground here. Won his only start at this track very convincingly. Overall, a tough race, but I’ll be playing Aloft each way, with a possible saver on Harlem.
TIP: Aloft EW
Race 5
The first Group 1 of the day and undoubtedly one of the toughest races on the card. At least we should have some idea about how the straight races will play by this stage. This is obviously a wide-open affair with 20 runners in the field but there’s three in particular I’m interested in backing here. On top goes unbeaten Godolphin colt VIRIDINE, who I became more and more keen on as I got deeper into the race. I said after his first up win this was a horse to follow, and he then went out and won dominantly second up in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes. That particular race is a terrific guide for the Coolmore, with three of the last four Coolmoore winners coming through the Roman Consul Stakes. He hasn’t had a taxing prep and should be peaking at his third run for the campaign here. He’ll need luck from barrier 1 as he will be locked away, but I believe he’s got the quality to win this and I’ll be backing him for a good result at $8. TRAPEZE ARTIST absolutely spanked them in the Group 1 Golden Rose, and while I think he’s better at 1400m than 1200m, the stable set him for this as soon as he won that race, so he will be well prepared. The difference in the Golden Rose was the blinkers going back on, and he keeps them on here. He draws wide, but that means we’ve got one runner on the inside and one on the outside, and often in these straight races it’s better to be drawn wide. He might just be the dominant three-year-old in the country and looks over the odds at $11. INVINCIBLE STAR is the third horse I’ll be backing. She won on debut up the Flemington straight which is a big positive. She returned with a luckless run behind Houtzen first up, before trotting in by 4L last start at Caulfield. She smashed the clock on that occasion and if she goes straight to the front here, she’ll be very tough to run down. She draws barrier 7, so we’ve got one drawn in the middle to go with the two boys. She’s at the $11 mark too. Will be backing all three, with the best result being Viridine (will only tip two of them below).
TIP: Viridine / Trapeze Artist EW
Race 6
I think this has the potential to be a very, very juicy race and I’ll be betting multiple runners at very big prices here. It’s rare that I do it, but a large part of my form will be based on the recent history of this race. Here are some relevant stats: five of the last seven winners have been 15/1+; seven of the last eight winners have started from barrier 10 or wider; 19 of the last 22 winners have had their last run in Melbourne. There’s a few horses that fit that profile and are in form, that are also at big odds and I’m also pretty keen to take on the favoured runners here. We can bet small on a few runners and get a good result, and if one of the favourites win, so be it. FLYING JESS is a huge price at $31. She’s finished 2nd in three of her four starts this prep, and the one time she didn’t was because she was held up the entire straight and went to the line untested. Her last two runs have been over this distance, she draws wide, is in great form and represents terrific value. PROMPT RESPONSE is ready to win. She was huge first up, never got clear 2nd up, and ran 3rd last start when carrying top weight at her first attempt at the distance. Back to WFA here, draws wide, gets red-hot Blake Shinn on and comes up $19. The final one I was keen to back was COOL PASSION at $31, but I’m waiting on confirmation as she will apparently be scratched? She flashed home to finish 2nd to Global Glamour last start. She did get the perfect trail behind Global Glamour on that occasion, and does get a negative weight swing today but she’s in flying form and her first start at the mile may bring out the biggest win of her career. One more runner that I’ll have a penny on is HEAVENS ABOVE, already a Group 1 winner in Sydney last prep over a similar distance. She bumped into Happy Clapper first up, Winx second up, and then caught the eye when running home nicely from the back of the field with top weight last start over 1200m. She started the exact same price in this race last year ($18) and should have gone very close but she never saw daylight. She hasn’t had the lead-up run in Melbourne, but she is a genuine chance again. DANISH TWIST another that fits the profile, as is FOXPLAY, while SHOALS has the ominous Aloisia form line. With the expected scratching of Cool Passion, I’ll be tipping and backing three in this race and hoping for a blowout: Flying Jess ($31), Heavens Above ($18) and Prompt Response ($19).
TIP: Flying Jess / Heavens Above / Prompt Response – (Best Value, all three)
Race 7
Another wide-open race but I’ve narrowed it down to the horses that filled the trifecta in the Geelong Classic. WEATHER WITH YOU was the winner on that occasion and he’s as genuine a stayer as you’ll get. He makes his own luck by racing up on speed, just as he did at Geelong when settling outside the leader before kicking for home at the top of the straight. Any rain that falls is a bonus for him – my one concern would be getting back onto a firm track. But he’s a good enough price to be backing here at $7.50. OCEAN’S FOURTEEN ran 2nd to him at Geelong after initially being held up in at the top of the straight. He draws nicely here to sit midfield, and he’s lightly raced so should have taken good benefit from the run last start. He was 1600m up to 2200m on that occasion, so with that run under his belt he should be much fitter. Getting on to a genuinely firm track may see him improve too. ASTORIA ran 3rd and loomed at the 200m like he was going to go straight past them. That was his first run in the Melbourne direction, and not only did he draw wide, but he carried 3kg more than he carries today. He gets a 2kg weight swing on Weather With You and can challenge here from barrier 1 at $9.50. Interestingly, Bowman jumps off Astoria to ride SULLY, so keep that in mind. ESHTIRAAK isn’t completely hopeless, while the absolute blowout could be WOLFE TONE at $151 after recording the fastest final 400m behind Aloisia last start.
TIP: Weather With You / Ocean’s Fourteen EW
Race 8
There’s no real historical pattern to follow in this race like there is in the Myer so I’ll just be going with two class horses here in TOSEN STARDOM and EGG TART. Tosen Stardom has always threatened to win a big one and he did so last start in pretty convincing fashion. I was under the impression he needed a touch longer but that win put that to bed. He goes up in weight here but draws a good barrier which will hopefully allow him to slot in three wide with cover and get clear running when needed. In fact, five of the last seven winners of the race have drawn barriers 8-10, so there’s something to follow. $6.50 is a price I’m happy to take. EGG TART was favourite for the Toorak last start but she had a month off leading into that race with an eye irritation, so I can probably forgive her for being slightly disappointing. Kerrin McEvoy would have had the choice of riding numerous Waller runners in this race, so the fact he chooses to go with Egg Tart is telling. She bolted in at her only start at this track, she’s undefeated third up and weighted well enough to win. $7 for her. I could see LUCKY HUSSLER running well but he had things absolutely set up for him last weekend with the murderous tempo. He is going well though. I will take on TOM MELBOURNE purely because he is a non-winner. SHILLELAGH, SOVEREIGN NATION and ALL OUR ROADS others that will go well.
TIP: Tosen Stardom / Egg Tart EW
Race 9
Four horses that interest me to close out the day here, but two in particular that I’m keen to back. The first of those is RICH CHARM. This horse just knows how to win. He was solid first up before winning second up, which was somewhat of a surprise to me because I thought he’d be peaking third up, which is today! He’s undefeated third up from a spell and undefeated over this track and distance. Stays on the same weight as last start and with natural improvement, he’ll be very hard to beat here. Competitive race but $6.50 appeals. The clear value in the race is SWEET SHERRY. She was beaten 2.5L first up behind She Will Reign, before a flat second up run last start. But if you look at her record, her second up run is always flat (only placed once from five attempts). The key today is that she is third up from a spell, and she’s won two races from three starts when third up. Third up last prep she won a Group 2 beating Fuhryk. She’s a three-time winner at the distance, has won down the Flemington straight before, is well weighted with 53kg, and comes out of a hot race behind Snitty Kitty. Can’t believe we are getting $16. ILLUSTRIOUS LAD has been set for this race and ran super first up. He’s got a great record at the track and distance and can win. RAVI is absolutely flying and should be undefeated this prep but she was desperately unlucky last start. Barrier 1 is a slight query for her down the straight but Kerrin McEvoy back on is a positive. She can go close.
TIP: Rich Charm (Best Bet) / Sweet Sherry EW
QUADDIE
1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 16
3, 4, 6, 7, 11, 16
1, 2, 6, 10, 12
1, 9, 11, 14
$100 = 14%
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
