Happy New Year to our Before You Bet cricket fans! It's been a fantastic start to the Big Bash League season, and we look forward to carrying that momentum into the New Year. So far the Scorcher, Renegades and Strikers look the teams to beat, with the Stars, Heat and Thunder competing for the last BBL07 play-off spot. The Sixers and the Hurricanes look off the pace and it could be a long season ahead for them to avoid a battle for the wooden spoon. We kick off the 2018 with a double-header which are always fun! Here's our BBL07 Round 4 preview and betting tips!
Sydney Thunder vs Hobart Hurricanes (Spotless Stadium, Monday 6:10pm AEDT)
A big double header to kick off the New Year will see the Thunder host the Hurricanes in the first match of the round. This match is a rematch of the battle from just a few days earlier where the Thunder were successful on the Hurricanes’ turf in Launceston. Was it a case of the Thunder being too good, or the Hurricanes just being too bad?
The Thunder were again led well by Shane Watson, but import Jos Buttler was the key at the top of the order. His 28-run over against Tom Rogers that included four maximums was a heart-breaker for the local Canes fans. However once those two were dismissed, the Thunder did struggle and posted a total that was far less than anticipated.
However the Hurricanes batting chase was simply woeful. Horribly soft dismissals by McDermott and Bailey at the top of the order, and a rather questionable batting order left them well short. Dan Christian was terribly under-utilised with the bat and the ball, and Jofra Archer could clearly bat, yet somehow was left way down the order.
The Canes have brought Nathan Reardon into the squad, so I would suggest he might come in to strengthen the batting at the expense of Tom Rogers. That would leave Christian and D’Arcy Short to fill the quota of overs which I don’t see being a problem.
The Thunder are going into the match unchanged. On Spotless Stadium you would think their spinners will create havoc and make it tough for the Canes but at a price of $1.67, I’m not going to be diving into the Thunder at that price. Instead, I really like backing the over 28.5 for Arjun Nair in the Player Performance market. With 20 points for a wicket, and one point per run, Nair has been a revelation this season with 8 wickets, and a couple of very handy contributions with the bat. The Hurricanes had no idea against him and I think at Spotless, he’s a strong chance for a couple of wickets and hopefully some runs as well.
TIP: Arjun Nair over 28.5pts in Player Performance market - $1.83 at Sportsbet
Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Sixers (WACA, Monday 9:25pm AEDT)
The second match of the double header, and another rematch, with the Scorchers playing host to the Sixers. Prior to Christmas, these two teams met at the SCG with the Scorchers gaining a comfortable victory after bowling out the Sixers for just 132. The Scorchers were a little nervy early before Ashton Turner belted them home.
Since then, the Sixers have been rocked by the news of skipper Moises Henriques stepping away for personal leave. Johan Botha will take over the reins but it really does leave a big hole in an already-fragile batting lineup. Jason Roy has been disappointing at the top of the order and the Sixers will require Nic Maddinson to stand up and hit his straps. The Sixers looked better balanced with Ben Dwarshuis coming in for big Doug Bollinger, giving them a deeper batting order and flexibility in the field. However strangely the Sixers played off-spinner Will Sommerville in their most recent match, yet didn’t give a bowl to former Test spinner Steve O’Keefe. The reasoning for that simply cannot be explained.
Meanwhile the Scorchers are flying high – undefeated and on top of the ladder after their first three games. Incredibly, the Scorchers have been underdogs in each of their matches – something that is just mind-blowing. Fortunately, our tips have been keen on the Scorchers from the get-go, so they continue to look after us. They simply have the best depth of squad in the competition, and despite all the injuries, the players they put on the park are quality. They will lose another player to international duties for this match with Aston Agar being called up to the Test squad. It does leave them vulnerable in the spin department with James Muirhead looking shaky at best. Expect Aston Turner to roll a few off-spinners down to fill out the overs. Fortunately for the Scorchers, their quicks have been at their destructive best with Mitchell Johnson near unplayable, and Andrew Tye cleaning up the tail.
How are the Sixers going to score any runs against the Scorchers attack? The Scorchers would like to see some of their bats get amongst the runs, but they know that they can defend any target. The price looks generous as the Scorchers should romp home.
TIP: Perth Scorchers to win - $1.61 at CrownBet
Melbourne Stars vs Brisbane Heat (MCG, Tuesday 7:10pm AEDT)
It may still be early in the season, but what a crucial match this will be at the MCG on Tuesday. With the top three teams looking a step above the rest, the battle for fourth place will include the Heat and the Stars, so this match is vital to their chances of reaching the play-offs.
The Stars are yet to register a win after a poor bowling effort against the Heat was followed up with a terrible batting chase against the Scorchers. The Stars are full of talent, but they often start the season slowly, so they will need to start to gel before the season slips away. 0-3 is not a fun place to be. John Hastings was appointed skipper this season, but he does look like the game is quickly passing him by, which leaves their bowling pretty vulnerable. Scott Boland is ordinary in this format, so they need their all-rounders in Marcus Stoins and James Faulkner to contribute in support of their spinners. Batting is clearly their strength with fire power all the way down the order. I think the inclusion of Peter Handscomb did disrupt their order a little though as I think he really should be behind Glenn Maxwell in the order. Watch out for Maxy to fire in this one.
The Heat will be disappointed with their performance on New Year's Eve against the Strikers in Adelaide. Hopefully they had a few beers that night to forget about that performance and are ready to fire in 2018. They got on top early before letting the Strikers post 147. It seemed gettable but the Heat fell in a heap and were all out for just 91. They did cop a stiff decision for superstar Chris Lynn who was incorrectly given out for a duck, but that doesn't hide the fact their batting was poor. If the Heat aren't making a mountain of runs, they are in trouble as their attack is one of the worst in the league. At least Pakistani spinner Yasir Shah slipped into the team beautifully so they haven't missed the loss of Shadab Khan, and while Josh Lalor performed well, he's hardly a weapon.
Plenty of runs could be scored in this one between two teams with strong batting and weak bowling units. I just can't see the Stars dropping this one as it simply is a must-win. They are a quality side and as long as Lynnsanity can be controlled, the Stars have better depth to get the victory.
TIP: Melbourne Stars to win - $1.77 at CrownBet
Melbourne Renegades vs Sydney Sixers (Geelong, Wednesday 7:10pm AEDT)
The Big Bash continues to reach new regions with the first BBL07 game to be held in Geelong as the Renegades host the Sixers. This is a real top and tail contest with the undefeated Renegades looking to secure their place towards the top of the table against the winless Sixers.
The Renegades have been pretty convincing so far this season and they have plenty of weapons with bat and ball. They haven't even needed Aaron Finch to fire as yet. Finch is arguably the most devastating player in the game, but he has missed out so far, with the likes of Cameron White and Tom Cooper picking up the slack. Dwayne Bravo is leading the way with the ball, but they have a really good mix of spinners and quicks that can handle any conditions. At 2-1, they will want to stay ahead of the ledger and ensure a victory here.
By contrast, the Sixers are really starting to scrape the bottom of the barrell with resources. With Moises Henriques already withdrawing himself from the BBL, the Sixers copped a couple of unfortunate blows in their game against the Scorchers. Opener Daniel Hughes went down with a quad strain in the warm-up, before former Test spinner Steve O'Keefe broke his leg in an awkward fall in the field. They are tough holes to fill. Will Somerville bowled ok, but they will need Johan Botha to bowl more overs moving forwards. The Sixers were pretty unlucky to lose against the Scorchers after they posted 167. Jordan Silk has been going well with the bat, as has Sam Billings, and Peter Nevill stepped into the opener spot and did ok.
The Sixers must be feeling the hurt right now at 0-4 and completely undermanned. If they can get over the Renegades in the very foreign region of Geelong, then it will be miraculous.
TIP: Melbourne Renegades to win - $1.55 at CrownBet
Tips are provided for entertainment and information purposes, and do not guarantee profit. Always gamble responsibly.
