After one of the most exciting opening weeks of the AFL Finals in a long time we are back for a couple of cracking Semi-Finals matches as the Hawks take on the Dog on Friday night and Crows head to Sydney on Saturday.
Fortunately, my Finals Week 1 betting tips went 3-1 for a +2.78 unit profit and hopefully I can clean sweep the two games this weekend which you can find below in my 2016 AFL Finals Week 2 betting tips.
2016 AFL Semi-Finals Betting Tips
Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, September 16 at 7:50pm AEST)
There weren't many who thought the Western Bulldogs would be able to win in Perth last week, but they absolutely decimated the Eagles and were the talk of the football world - but only for 24 hours as the Hawks and Cats would play an absolute classic 24 hours later and steal the spotlight. Hawthorn lost by 2 points with a missed goal after the siren, and just like that, would have to take the hard road to the Grand Final as they did last season. Will their quest for a fourth flag in a row come to an end in this semi-final against the Bulldogs on Friday night?
It would be far too simple to say that the Hawks are simply a champion team who will be too experienced for the Dogs on the big finals stage at the MCG. If last week's performance from the Dogs is in anything to go by, this is going to be no pushover. It seemed risky to bring back five players from injury last week - especially Liberatore, Macrae and Wood - but they were all so important in victory and if their bodies hold up for another week, will certainly be a big factor in defeating the Hawks.
The Bulldogs have played the MCG twice this year (against the Demons and Collingwood) and won both games. They played the Hawks at Etihad in Round 3 and lost by 3 points in a thriller. The Dogs were on top of the Hawks for most of that game, winning contested ball and clearances and ultimately shouldn't have lost. But the Hawks do find ways to win and almost did the same in their final against Geelong last week. The most promising sign from the Dogs last week was that they managed to score 99 points - 14 points more than their season average and closer to the amount you need to be scoring to win finals.
I think there are two key questions here: 1. How will the Dogs pull up (especially the returning injured players) after their win against the Eagles? 2. What toll did a tough game on a wet ground take on the Hawks? The Hawks have looked tired at times this year. Their older players don't seem to be recovering like they used to. You can't downplay their immense finals experience, but at some point this era's Hawks has to be cooked and is now that time? No doubt they will give their everything, but if the Bulldogs get on top of the clearances and the contested ball, they will be tough to beat. Yes, the Hawks say contested ball stats don't matter and at times have proven that season. But finals are all about tough, contested footy. If the Hawks are going to win, they need to play completely on their terms and use slick open ball movement on the big ground to stop the Dogs from being able to get in close and use their elite handballing to clear the ball. I think this will be a very tight game and give the Dogs a chance to keep it very close and are a solid chance to win. I will be splitting two units across two bets - the majority on the Dogs at the line and a small play on Dogs under 39.5.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (+11.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
+ Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $3.10 at Ladbrokes (0.5 units)
Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows (Saturday, September 17 at 7:25pm AEST)
The Swans and Crows come into this game on the back of completely opposite first week's of the finals - Sydney were battered in a tough game against the Giants, while Adelaide had it easy in their huge win over the Roos. All the momentum is with the Crows, but it's not going to be an easy task to take on the Swans at the SCG.
We can't get carried away with last week's game and write the Swans off. They finished on top of the ladder for a reason. There are plenty of reasons they lost to the Giants and I don't think lack of talent is one of them, I simply think the Giants are that good and match-up well against the Swans. The 36-point margin was in part due to the Swans pulling up when the game was already lost. I have no doubt they can bounce back this week, but it certainly won't be an easy victory - especially having lost this year's Rising Star Callum Mills and Kurt Tippet to injury last week.
The Crows put on a clinic last week, but it's hard to say how much of that was on the back of their own form and how much was because they were playing a sub-standard team in the Roos. It's been clear for much of the season that the Roos don't cut it and that was made even clearer in week 1 of the finals. They simply let Eddie Betts run rampant and when they tried to move the ball forward themeselves, did nothing to stop the influence of the Crow's rebounding defenders. It could be argued that last week's game was not the best preparation for the Crows - yes, they will have confidence from the win, but the Swans at the SCG is going to be an entirely different contest.
The Swans didn't play like the team we are used to last week. They are usually the best tackling side in the comp and their midfield usually dominates. It seems they may have underestimated the Giants. If they respond in the manner they should in week 2 of the finals than they will win here. Their game last week was at the dreaded ANZ Stadium, while this week is at the SCG. They are a tough team to beat this ground. Key to the victory will be a huge effort from their midfield (which overall is more damaging than the Crows) and a big bounce back from Lance Franklin. My problem with betting on this game is that the Swans are a little under the odds at Australian sports betting websites. However, expecting a tight game, so we can find a little value with the Swans under 39.5.
Tip: Sydney Swans by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
