Wasn’t last week a cracking round of footy? Hopefully we get more of the same with Round 14 of the 2014 AFL season and just as importantly, can win a few bets along the way. Looks like lots of opportunities to find an edge this week too. Make sure to read on and check out Before You Bet’s 2014 AFL Round 14 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 14 Preview
Round 14 kicks off on Friday night with Richmond Tigers Vs. Sydney Swans. All the talk this week has been about Buddy Franklin and the form he is in. Yes, he’s in great form, but that’s not why the Swans will take care of the Tigers on Friday. It’s more because the Tigers will not be able to at all keep up with the fast running red and white. Also, Richmond are in shambles this season. Richmond have defeated the Swans the last three times at the MCG, which is something they will take solace in. The Swans midfield (even without Dan Hannebery) is far superior to an out of form Trent Cotchin and an underdone Brett Deledio. The Tigers will once again be hoping for Dustin Martin to save the day, but we all know he finds it hard to string together four quarters and really, the Swans have their own more consistent Dustin Martin in Luke Parker. And who’s going to stop the Swans forward line? Alex Rance? Very doubtful. Who’s going to stop Jack Reiwoldt? Probably the Swans elite backline I’d say. The last time the two teams met was at the SCG last year and the Swans won by 47 points. Expecting more of the same, but this time in Melbourne.
The first game on Saturday is Port Adelaide Vs. Western Bulldogs. It’s up at the notorious Adelaide Oval, it’s 1st on the ladder against 13th and it’s an elite team versus an inconsistent up and coming team. Many people will be talking about the Bulldogs effort against the Pies in regard to this game, but really we should be talking about how Port Adelaide almost beat a red-hot Swans at their own stadium. The Power show no signs of slowing down and despite the Bulldogs winning eight of the last nine against them, you would expect Port Adelaide to win this game by four to five goals, nine times out of ten. What we will be looking for here is the Bulldogs to back up last week’s effort and be gallant in defeat.
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Collingwood Magpies is shaping up to be one of the biggest games of Round 14. Collingwood will be desperate to regain their form after their loss to the Bulldogs last week. This is one of those “most win” games for both teams. The Hawks, with a tough late run, need to win to keep themselves in top four contention and the Pies need to win to give themselves a chance at a late run at making the top four. They lose this and they might have to start talking about a finals campaign from the 6th through 8th positions. The Hawks have a great record against the Pies and we expect that to continue here. The Magpies have the worst kicking efficiency in the AFL and the silky smooth Hawks (ranked 2nd in this stat) will punish the Pies for this. The only way Collingwood can keep this close is with immense pressure. The Bulldogs really took advantage of an inexperienced Pies backline last week, and while the Pies will likely plug a few of these holes, expect the Hawks to also exploit this area. The Hawks will be happy to have Gunstan and Lake back, while the Pies will desperate for a returning Dayne Beams to fire up and have an impact. Should be a cracking game, but edge definitely goes to the Hawks here.
Four weeks ago, the Gold Coast Suns Vs Geelong Cats game would have been extremely interesting and we would have suggested that the Suns are a good chance to win. But right now, after three straight losses, it’s hard to think the Suns are a chance. They do need to win if they want to keep their finals chance alive and will be fighting hard, but Geelong found their confidence against the Saints last week and despite this being up in the Gold Coast, should be too strong. The Cats also get lots of experience back in the team, including Steve Johnson, Josh Caddy and Allen Christensen. Just looks like the young Suns are getting weary after a fighting start to the season. Go with the experience of the Cats here.
There’s not too much to say about Fremantle Dockers Vs. Brisbane Lions. The Dockers have won the last four games after a shakey start to the season and will win a fifth and continue their confidence building easy draw towards the pointy end of the season. Would not be surprised if, at home, the Dockers absolutely thump the Lions.
Saturday night’s Essendon Bombers Vs. Adelaide Crows is one of those games that could go either way – the Bombers step up, in the face of their off-field dramas and after a disappointing loss to the Demons, or their confidence falls to an all-time low and a surging Adelaide continue their run to the finals and make it two in a row after a gallant victory against the Roos last week. Quite simply, if Adelaide can recreate their form of last week, Essendon can’t win. Adelaide haven’t played the Dons in Melbourne since 2009, but that won’t worry them. Should be an okay game, but edge certainly goes to Adelaide.
Could GWS Giants Vs. Carlton Blues be the game of the round? Unlikely, but considering the Giants are coming off a rare victory and the Blues season is all but over, this is shaping to be an interesting matchup. The Giants have the edge in the middle of the ground, with Callan Ward proving to be an elite midfielder. The Blues will need big games from all their big name players to make this game a certain victory and considering we haven’t seen that sort of form all year, it’s hard to bet on that happening. Expecting a competitive game, but considering how good the Blues were against the Hawks last week, can’t see them losing this.
St Kilda Saints Vs West Coast Eagles looks like a one-sided affair. The only solace for a terrible Saints is that the Eagles haven’t looked very good this year and the fact the Eagls have lost three of their last four at Etihad Stadium. The Saints should fire up and give a contest, but can’t see them with a chance of winning. In fact, not sure the Saints can win a game again this year.
The last game of Round 14 is Melbourne Demons Vs. Nth Melbourne Kangaroos. The Demons are coming off their best game of the last three years and the Kangaroos are coming off one of their worst. The Kangaroos simply can’t lose this or once again we will be questioning their chances of making a run in the finals and might even bring their 2014 top eight chances into question. The thing is, the Demons aren’t an easy side to play against any more. Have to expect the Kangaroos to step up and be too strong, but expect Roos’ Demons to put up another gallant fight.
Round 14 Best Betting Tips
Sydney at the line (-23.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes ***
Port Adelaide Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.65 at Ladbrokes *
Hawthorn at the line (-19.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes ***
Geelong at the line (-13.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes ***
Adelaide Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Ladbrokes **
Nth Melbourne Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.05 at Ladbrokes **
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 14 Tipping Advice
Last week was a tough week for us! We snagged Melbourne to beat Essendon, but seemed to lose plenty of tips by a nose (Port, Gold Coast) and others we just could never pick (Adelaide, GWS). This week looks a bit easier… Hopefully! Remember this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace.
Sydney (Richmond)
Port Adelaide (Bulldogs)
Hawthorn (Collingwood)
Geelong (Gold Coast)
Fremantle (Brisbane)
Adelaide (Essendon)
Carlton (GWS)
West Coast (Saints)
North Melbourne (Melbourne)
Score last round: 4
Total Score: 71
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
