As the spring racing carnival comes to an end we still have an awesome meeting at Rosehill this Saturday. The Five Diamonds headlines the card in it’s inaugural year while there are nine other strong races across the afternoon.
The weather has been perfect in Sydney for the last two weeks so we should expect to see a good 4 and every horse to get their chance.
As usual, Billy Bestford has had a look at the meeting and has found his best bets for the day.
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday November 5th
Race 1
We start the day with a wide open Midway handicap as expected and I’ll side with (2) Astero who should improve off the first up run in similar company. Always races better 2nd up and and like him riding in trip. Draws well and Gibbons will give him every chance to win.
(9) Verbek drops out of stronger grade for this and should be suited by that. Rarely runs a poor race and should see a nice run just off the leaders backs.
(6) Danish Prince could be a touch of value on the quick backup out of the Four Pillars. Dropping back to 1300m isn’t ideal but he has the quality.
(8) Either Oar was only just beaten in a Midway last start and has been racing in consisten form. She deserves another win and Tommy Berry taking over is a big tick.
(2) Astero
$5.50 (1 unit)
Race 2
(5) Sir Ravanelli was the eye catcher last week in the Highway running on strongly for 3rd. Have to respect the quick backup here and the horse has been airborne. Still lightly raced and on the up.
(16) Ribeauville can improve dropping back in trip at a big price. Had been going well before last run and can find the front today from the low draw.
(14) Royal Charge looks as if 1400m should suit and has been racing in solid form. Is a winner at only run over this trip and should see a nice run from gate 1 with Pike on.
(1 To The Nines ran a great race first up at Canberra when beaten by a smart one. Can improve with that run under the belt now.
(5) Sir Ravanelli
$3.05 (1.5 units)
Race 3
(6) Pale King beat a handy one in Pink Ivory last time out over 1900m. That horse has since run very well last weekend. Getting into dry ground was the key for Pale King and I like him rising to 2400m. Might just need some luck from the wide gate.
Think (3) King Frankel could be a promising stayer for connections. Just keeps improving as they rise in grade and step up in trip while he looks to get in well here after Schiller’s claim. Had one run back in the UK over 2400m for a good 2nd.
(9) Essential Sky looks an improving type and is now having third straight start over 2400m. The last two have been very impressive making up strong ground from back in the field.
(1 King’s Charisma next best.
(6) Pale King
$3.90 (1 unit)
Race 4
Keen on (7) Naval Seal who should take plenty of improvement out of the first up effort. That was over 1600m and rising to this trip now looks suitable. Is a winner at only start this track/trip and I think this horse can go on to win better races than this.
(4 Willinga Rufio has the benefit of three runs under his belt now and should be set to peak. Will make his own luck out in front and is progressive enough for a race like this.
(2) Greek Hero has to lump 60kg here but I’ve always thought he is a decent enough horse. He’s been in very good form of late and should be running on strongly.
(5) Colour Sergeant should enjoy getting out to 1800m and the form around him last prep is good.
(7) Naval Seal
$2.70 (2 units)
Race 5
(2) Fox Fighter should be hard to beat finally getting back on top of the ground today. His form this prep has been strong and his record on good tracks is outstanding. While he will be spotting them a start he has race fitness on his side in a race where many horses resume.
(5) Devil’s Throat has been good this prep at two runs to date. The first of those was in a much stronger race than this. 3rd up he should be set to peak. If he can get across from the wide gate early then he will be tough to run down.
(4) Soami resumes for a new stable and has been trialling well for his return. If the market likes him pre race then he could be one to follow. Goes very well first up.
(3) Bend The Knee is better over further but has a good fresh record and the form around him last prep is good. Ran third to Vilana earlier this year.
(6) Kobe Rocks next best.
(2) Fox Fighter
$3.70 (1 unit)
Race 6
I think (2) Coincide can turn the tables on Barber off the back of a very tough effort in the Kirkham to run 2nd to that horse. From a better draw and race experience now I expect this horse will take some running down. Tommy Berry taking over is a positive and this horse will be winning a few races early in his career.
(7) Mexico looks one of the better value runners on the card, coming back to Sydney after a good run down in Melbourne on a wet track. Was only just worn down by a horse who looks above average there and onto dry ground suits. Had been trialling very nicely leading into that debut run.
(3) Disneck is well bred and comes to the races off a good trial win. He should see every chance in running from barrier 2.
(1 Barber won the Kirkham Plate on debut but thought he had the dream run in comparison to a few in the race. With that said he did everything right and with any luck from the carpark draw he can make it 2/2.
Value: (7) Mexico - $19 (0.25 units)
(2) Coincide
$6.00 (1 unit)
Race 7
No horse will enjoy getting onto a dry track more today than (1) Electric Girl who has a very good record in better races than this. Her last start run on a soft 6 was extremely good and was one for the blackbook off that effort. Rising to 1400m looks ideal and she won this race last year. Very keen on her.
(12) Sheeza Belter is a smart filly in her own right and is another who loves dry ground. She will be a big improver 2nd up and her form last year in QLD was top notch as a 2yo. She has a big race in her this prep.
(3) Jamaea will get back from the wide draw but that won’t matter because that’s her pattern anyway. Similar to the top two she has been desperate to get onto a dry deck and on best form she is the one who can run well at a price.
(4) Lavish Girl should enjoy getting back to her own sex and has been racing well this prep.
(1) Electric Girl
$2.90 (2.5 units)
Race 8
Here’s the feature race of the day with the first running of The Five Diamonds - a $2m race exclusive to five year olds.
I’m with (2) Laws Of Indicies who comes into this off an 8th in the Cox Plate. Can’t say many of these would be capable of getting within 3L of Anamoe so that form has to be good enough for a race like this. The horse that finished behind him there just won the Melbourne Cup! Expect he will be saved for one last crack at them from the wide gate.
(4) Ayrton looks the next best chance here and getting onto a dry track will do him a world of good. He’s shown plenty of talent in his career to date and should be set to peak now 3rd up rising in trip.
Can’t knock (1) Ellsberg who is a ripper of a horse. Makes his own luck up in the lead and always finds a strong kick when asked for an effort. Flying this prep and beat many of these already at his last couple. 1800m the big query?
(10) Sibaaq is on the quick back up from The Big Dance on Tuesday. The rise to 1800m suits him and he has a very good 4th up record. Wouldn’t shock to see him run a good race.
Also Backing: (4) Ayrton - $8 (0.5 unit)
(2) Laws Of Indicies
$4.20 (1 unit)
Race 9
(1) Coco Rox started favourite first up having to lump the big weight against some smart horses. Her best form is plenty good enough for this and can see her improving on a dry track.
(4) I Am Me won three on the bounce to begin last prep and resumes today with Berry in the saddle who rode him first up last time in work. Trials been solid enough and the stable have taken their time with him. This looks a nice stepping stone into some deeper races.
(3) Winning Verse travelled up on a very hot speed last Saturday and was found wanting late on. Back against the girls now she will improve with that run improving the fitness. She’s lightly raced and still on the up.
(8) Devil’s Triangle caught they first up when running home strongly over 1000m to finish 3rd. The slight rise to 1100m will suit and her best runs have been 2nd up.
(1) Coco Rox
$3.35 (1 unit)
Race 10
(4) Bella Rouge drops in grade off a solid effort first up, Ticks plenty of boxes here, rising to 1400m where she has won twice, getting onto a good surface and is also a winner at her only start at Rosehill. She looks an easy bet to have in a race full of unknowns.
(6) I Am Lethal was disappointing last week but did himself no favours in the run. Would have liked to see him finish off better but if you can be forgiving off that, his form leading in was good.
(7) Arnaqueur is a gun fresh horse and was quickly put away after knocking off Conqueror at Randwick over this trip. He’s trialled well for his return and maps for a nice run with Reece Jones doing the steering.
(13) Short Shorts looks to lead this on his own and will get the race run to suit. With added fitness in his legs he will take some running down.
(4) Bella Rouge
$3.50 (1 unit)
