The premier Autumn meetings in Sydney continue this weekend with Tancred Stakes and Vinery Stud Stakes day at Rosehill. We found Shinzo in the Slipper last weekend at massive odds so let’s keep the ball rolling this weekend with a full race-card preview and selections with staking recommendations.
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Rosehill Racing Tips – Saturday, March 25th 2023
Race 1 – Midway bm72
(1) Astero is the horse to beat here. He was drawn wide last time when Lancaster Bomber got the better of him from an inside draw. The scenario is flipped here with Astero drawn in gate 2 so with a clear path in the straight I’m expecting him to turn the tables and win.
(12) Two Up can’t be ignored here with gate 1 and Tom Marquand aboard after running 2nd last time. He’ll get a beautiful run on the rail and with clear running late should be looking like a threat.
(3) Lancaster Bomber as mentioned won last time beating Astero and Border Control. He’s going to have a lot more against him this time from a wide gate but in the form he’s in he’s definitely going to be thereabouts even with a tougher run.
No Bet
Race 2 – Bailleau Handicap. (Group 3)
(6) Inhibitions will lead this race from an inside draw. She stuck on well last time after drawing wide and working to the front under quite a bit of pressure. Easier speedmap to contend with here so expecting her to go close.
(3) The Years closed off well in the Black Opal last time which is the main lead-up race. The wide draw doesn’t look ideal for this colt as he may be forced to work around the field to assume his typical prominent role. Should go well if he can overcome that wide gate.
(9) Miss Ghent is the new filly on the scene winning her debut maiden race at Canberra which was slower than the Black Opal on the same day but she exhibited much faster closing sectionals which is generally a good sign.
No Bet
Race 3 – Tulloch Stakes (Group 2)
(7) Awesome John goes on top for me here. I trust the form out of the Phar Lap Stakes and recognise that this is definitely a step back in grade for the horse who looked to be warming up late and finishing strongly through the line last time.
(4) Stoke Of Luck looks like a horse suited to 2000m as he worked home very nicely over 1900m last time at this track. My concern is the quality of a bm78 and now entering a group 2 event. It’s a huge step up in grade and often finds horses out.
(3) Major Beel is in the same category as Stroke Of Luck here but again looks like a strong galloper over 2000m. Faded late last time but may be able to get an easier time in the lead here with the added fitness from the 1900m last time.
(7) Awesome John - Win
$4.40 (1 Unit)
Race 4 – Neville Sellwood (Group 3)
(6) Zeyrek is the horse to beat in this event. He went well last time in the Sky High Stakes running 2nd to protagonist and beating a large portion of the runners in contention here. Most of those runners would need to find significant improvement to turn the tables, the international runners would be the main dangers.
(8) Third Realm comes out of the same race as Dubai Honour at Kempton a few starts ago which ties his form in well as Dubai Honour was able to steal the Ranvet Stakes last weekend. International runners are hard to compare but this one looks relatively talented.
(4) Gear Up enters the frame under similar circumstances as Third Realm who met this horse in that same race which Dubai Honour ran 2nd to Mostahdaf. Expect them to perform similarly again here.
No Bet
Race 5 – Star Kingdom Stakes (Group 3)
(10) Waihaha Falls gets the advantage on the speedmap here which is the main reason he goes on top in this event. There’s not much between all of these horses as is indicated by the market but with so much pace on paper, Waihaha Falls should soak it all up early and be closing off the strongest from midfield under Tom Marquand.
(5) Dajraan is a runner I’m keen on at odds here having trialled nicely since running well last preparation even beating Mirra Vision who is in the market for a loaded Emancipation Stakes.
(1) Weona Smartone won a trial nicely up in Qld in the leadup to his return in Sydney on Saturday. He’s the testing material and rarely runs a bad race but will have to fend off plenty of speedy runners for a prominent position here which has me questioning his potential to win this race.
(10) Waihaha Falls - Each Way
$8/$2.90 (1 Unit)
Race 6 – Emancipation Stakes (Group 2)
(3) Promise Of Success gets the blessing of Aussie Tom (Tom Marquand) to steer her on Saturday. She’s a serially underrated mare and has consistently won at big odds throughout her career. Gate 1 may be tricky for her as she’s typically the horse storming down the outside around the field but Tom Marquand is the right man for the job.
(6) Statement deserves plenty of respect here with John Allen riding for the O’Brien team. She’s come from Ireland to compete on Saturday and boasts an impressive record from overseas. Dry track a slight query but has the class.
(7) Mirra Vision knows how to win at Rosehill and looks a nice fit for this race. She comes out of the Coolmore where she didn’t have the best of luck and crossed the line with a talented one in Hope In Your Heart. The wide draw poses some difficulties but she’s capable of overcoming them.
(3) Promise Of Success - Each Way
$20/$6 (1 Unit)
Race 7 – Vinery Stud Stakes (Group 1)
(3) Pavitra is very hard to look past for the Vinery here after blitzing her rivals in the Kembla Grange Classic last start. Shout The Bar came out of the same race to win this race 3 years ago and she wasn’t anywhere near as impressive as Pavitra in the lead up. Pavitra has the opportunity to settle right behind the speed in a race that lacks pressure on paper. Chad Schofield should have plenty of options coming into the straight and should have plenty of horse underneath him.
(1) Prowess is the unknown factor in this event. She’s coming to Sydney from across the ditch having absolutely dominated black type racing over there winning her last 4 on the trot. Kiwi raiders have come to the fore in plenty of big races recently and this filly might just be next on the list to do so.
(2) Fireburn follows the most proven Vinery lead up having run in the Phar Lap stakes which produced Fangirl and Hungry Heart to win this race in the last 2 years. There’s no doubt Fireburn has the class, and no doubt she’s been tackling the toughest competition of this field. I’m just cautious about the 2000m with her though as she’s untested and has always been a better sprinter.
(3) Pavitra - Win
$3.40 (2 Units)
Race 8 – Tancred Stakes (Group 1)
(14) Montefilia went phenomenally last time behind Mo’unga from back in the field in a slowly-run affair. She’ll run well again here on the back up and is a decent prospect at e/w odds.
(2) Knight’s Order will get the lead here and quite comfortably by the speedmap on paper. Tim Clark has an exceptional record aboard the horse and there’s no doubt he’ll keep battling all the way through the line.
(3) Vow And Declare brings a unique form line to Sydney having placed 2nd behind Right You Are in both runs this preparation. It’ll be interesting to see how that form stacks up here but Vow And Declare must be respected having seemingly regained some form of late.
(14) Montefilia - Each Way
$5.50/$2.10 (1 Unit)
Race 9 – Doncaster Prelude (Group 3)
(5) Cross Talk heads the betting in a mouth-watering Doncaster Prelude field here. What a spectacle this race will be leading us into one of the most exciting races on the calendar the Doncaster Mile. Cross Talk will lead from a good gate and take luck out of the equation which is crucial in races of this nature.
(6) Diamil has had a hit out and got absolutely no luck in the run there to finish 9th. The performance warranted a better finishing position and he gets another shot here under Tom Marquand to improve on that 9thwith a bit more luck in running.
(4) Bandersnatch was clearly a good thing beaten or just about in the Ajax Stakes last time. Gate 9 might be a blessing in disguise if he can handle a slightly tougher run as he should have plenty of open turf to eat up in the straight.
No Bet
Race 10 – bm88
(7) Tamerlane just peaked on his run last time when 1st up. Should be fitter for that now and is definitely in good enough form to win this race.
(6) Maotai has Tamerlane’s measure last time but meets that horse worse off here rising 1.5kg comparatively and drawing a few gates wider while Tamerlane draws a few gates closer to the rail.
(11) Substantial has produced a very promising trial at Randwick since arriving in Australia from England. If he brings that trial performance to the races on Saturday, he could completely blow this field away or at the very least be extremely competitive.
No Bet
