After a full 13-game slate in week 8, the options are reduced for week 9, with just 7 early window and 3 late window games in the slate. Again, with scoring down, there aren’t many games lined at high totals, with just three games totals at over 41 points. These game (Seahawks @ Ravens, Colts @ Panthers, Cowboys @ Eagles), should then be considered when picking your players, especially when looking to stack.
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Quarterbacks
Sam Howell - $12,810
Slingin’ Sammy Howell has had an up and down season, however when he’s on, he’s putting up impressive scores. Coming off his best score of the season (35), it’s a little bit of a buy high spot here on Howell, however he gets a decent matchup here against the Patriots. The Patriots have conceded the fourth-most passing touchdowns, sixth-highest passer rating, and 8th-highest adjusted completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Howell ranks second in passing attempts, sixth in both passing yards and touchdowns, and eighth in both adjusted completion rate, and highly accurate throw rate. In a week I believe fading the top QBs in this slate is a good idea, save some money with Howell, or the next man on our list…
Derek Carr - $12,680
Carr has been solid in his past three outings and gets an A+ matchup this week at home against the Bears. The Bears have conceded the third most points per game in fantasy this season to opposing quarterbacks, have conceded the second-most passing touchdowns, eighth-highest adjusted completion rate, and 10th-highest yards per attempt. Across the past three games, Carr ranks second in passing attempts and passing yards per game. With scores of 20, 21, and 21, expect another solid outing here for Carr as a mid-priced QB1 with top-5 upside in this slate.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor - $13,510
Taylor has slowly but surely pushed his way back up to the top performing fantasy running backs in the league, and this week could be his return to the absolute pinnacle. Taylor will take on a Panthers run defence that concede the third most yards after contact per attempt, fifth-most missed tackles per attempt, and the sixth-highest explosive run rate. Meanwhile, Taylor ranks 7th in the league in explosive run rate, 2nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and leads the league in yards after contact per attempt. Watch for Taylor to torch the Panthers this week.
Saquon Barkley - $13,820
Barkley continues to be the Giants offense, as he leads all running backs in snaps played per game. He ranks second in snap share and opportunity share, whilst also rating highly at yards after contact per attempt (15th), and missed tackles forced (27th). This week, he gets a Raiders defence that allow the 7th-highest yards after contact, 11th-highest explosive rush rate, and the 6th-lowest stuff rate. Barkley will get it done with volume, and explosive plays.
Royce Freeman - $8,000
Freeman took over the lead back role last week for the Rams, as he managed 53% of the snaps on offense. Whilst his stat line wasn’t eye-popping, it was a tough game for him as the Rams were down big early and leant more on the passing game. This week, I expect a much tighter matchup with the Packers, in a game where the Rams could very well have an early lead. The Packers run defence has been poor this year, conceding the 5th-most missed tackles to backs, 8th-most fantasy points per game, whilst allowing the 14th-highest touchdown rate. A nice, cheap option this week as a RB2/FLEX who should put up a solid score.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb - $14,460
Lamb finally broke out last week, catching 12 passes for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns. Whilst I’m not expecting that sort of return this week, Lamb should once again get fed against this poor Eagles’ pass defence. The Eagles have allowed the most yards to opposing slot receivers this season and rank 32nd and last in points conceded to opposing wide receivers in fantasy. Lamb is currently seeing a 24.5% target share, 31.7% air-yard share, 26.9% first-read share, whilst gaining 2.85 yards per route run. Lock him in.
Michael Pittman Jr - $12,300
Pittman, like his teammate Jonathan Taylor, gets a nice matchup this week against a Panthers defence that, whilst looking good last week, will struggle to contain this Colts offense. The Panthers deploy zone coverage the second most of any team in the NFL, and Pittman dominates against zone, garnering a 36.3% first-read share, 29.9% air-yard share, and 26.2% target-share in zone coverage. Added to this, the Colts’ other top receiver Josh Downs is questionable this week, and even if he plays, you’d have to believe he’s somewhat limited. Expect a big performance from the Colts #1 receiver this week.
Nico Collins - $9,270
After a poor outing last week, I expect the Texans offense to bounce back this week against the Bucs at home. Whilst his air-yard share (28.8%,), target-share (18.2%), and first-read share (25.8%) are all solid numbers, it’s Collins’ explosiveness that makes him worth a look. Collins ranks 4th in the league in YAC per reception, and 7th in total YAC. With the Buccaneers conceding a bottom third of the league yards after catch, expect Collins to wreak havoc if Stroud can get him the ball. A nice little pick up, for a cheap price.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews - $10,610
Andrews is the TE2 in fantasy this season behind Travis Kelce and ranks high amongst all tight ends in target-share (4th), first-read share (5th), air-yard share (6th), and yards per route run (6th). This week, he gets a great matchup against a Seahawks defence which allow the 6th-highest yards per reception to opposing tight ends and ranks 21st in DVOA against tight ends. Andrews more than likely ends this slate as the top scoring tight end, and with a low score of 7.5 this season, has a great floor for a tight end.
Kyle Pitts - $8,780
Pitts is a flyer I’m willing to take on this week, and with Drake London sidelined, newly promoted QB1 Taylor Heineke will no doubt look to target Pitts regularly. Whilst Pitts’ numbers aren’t mind blowing (26.5% air-yard share, 19.3% first-read share, and 17.5% target-share), with an upgrade at quarterback and London missing, these numbers should sky-rocket this week. The Vikings allow the 8th-most receiving yards to opposing slot receivers this season, and Pitts should run close to 60% of his routes in the slot.
D/ST
Cleveland Browns - $7,130
The Browns are the most expensive D/ST in this slate, and for a very good reason. First, they get to take on an Arizona Cardinals team that is starting rookie 5th round quarterback Clayton Tune, in his first career start. The Browns will be at home, where they have held three of their opponents to under 20 points. The Browns should suffocate the Cardinals offense, in a spot where I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Cardinals not score a point. Look for sacks and turnovers, and more than likely some crazy special teams play by the Browns at home.
New York Giants - $5,610
The Giants defence has kept them in several games this season, whilst their offense has bumbled around. Their D/ST units have scores of 12, 5, 14, and 12 over the past month, and against a rookie quarterback this week, could wreak havoc once again. Last week, the Giants managed to sack Zach Wilson 4 times, and I expect them to once again be blitz heavy and attacking rookie Aidan O’Connell. A nice discount on the top teams, Giants are a definite consideration if you need that extra $1,500 to jump up to an elite playmaker elsewhere.
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