With only two rounds to go in the 2022-23 NBL season and eight (well, realistically only seven) teams trying to squeeze into six finals spots, this week’s matches are about as important as they get. An upset win or loss in Round 17 could be the crucial difference between glory or pain in NBL season 2022-23.
Such is the closeness of the season, it’s possible that 17 wins could finish as high as 1st or as low as 4th, while 14 wins could be good for 5th or as low as 8th. It’s tight!
Check out our Round 17 NBL betting tips for each match of the round below, and if you're looking for a new sportsbook then we recommend Neds for all your NBL betting needs!
NBL Round 17 Betting Tips
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Cairns Taipans
State Basketball Centre, Wednesday 7:30pm AEDT
The Phoenix find themselves nestled inside the top six after a big away win over the Wildcats on Sunday afternoon. Their scoring power was on show with Alan Williams dominating with 27 points and 14 rebounds. Ryan Broekhoff was also a star with 26 points, shooting 6 from 10 from the arc, but unfortunately will miss the rest of the regular season after suffering a groin strain in the match. Owen Foxwell will come into the lineup.
The Phoenix need to keep winning to hold onto their playoffs spot but it won’t be easy against the Taipans who will be looking to bounce back after a home loss to the JJs which snapped their six-game winning streak. MVP candidate Keanu Pinder returned to the lineup following his ankle injury and failed to have much impact with just 7 points and 3 rebounds in 20 minutes. He’ll be better for the run and will be looking to assert himself here. With the top-placed Kings losing their last two, suddenly top spot on the ladder is potentially up for grabs for the Snakes.
The bookies can’t split the two teams. The Phoenix have the home court advantage, but with Broekhoff out, and Pinder improving upon his return, happy to lean to the Taipans.
Cairns Taipans to win
$1.95
Brisbane Bullets vs New Zealand Breakers
Nissan Arena, Thursday 7:30pm AEDT
It’s been a tough season for the Bullets but they’ve now strung together three wins on the trot to start to earn back some respect. Their away win against the Phoenix was impressive and they’ve followed up with solid efforts against Adelaide and Illawarra. They’ve been getting minutes into their bench but it’s been Jason Cadee and Tyler Johnson who have stood tall in their recent wins.
Meanwhile the Breakers snapped their losing streak, which included a horrible loss to the lowly Hawks, with an upset win against the top-of-the-table Kings. Jarrell Brantley was huge with 30 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists, to keep the Breakers in the hunt. The Breakers are mixing up their form, but they will be buoyed by the win against the Kings with Barry Brown Jr and Izayah le’Afa still on the sidelines. They have a soft run home so will be sure to secure this win on their way to a playoffs berth.
Tasmania JackJumpers vs Sydney Kings
MyState Bank Arena, Friday 7:30pm AEDT
Click here for our preview of JackJumpers vs Kings
Perth Wildcats vs Illawarra Hawks
RAC Arena, Friday 9:30pm AEDT
The second match on Friday night sees the Wildcats host the bottom-placed Hawks. The Wildcats have a game advantage over those others in the hunt for playoffs and a match against the Hawks is exactly what they need to press that edge.
The Wildcats were at their offensive best when they knocked off the ladder-leading Kings last round, and a repeat of that will be far too good for the Hawks. However they have mixed their form throughout the season, so they will be hoping to roll together some winning momentum to finish the season.
Meanwhile there’s been little joy for the Hawks this season with just 3 victories to their name. Former NBA player Mangok Mathiang has departed to chase overseas opportunities, while injured import Michael Frazier remains on the sidelines.
I expect Perth to want to play an offensive game here, and while the -10.5 point line is an option, I think we’ll see plenty of points scored in a low intensity match, so we’ll play the total points overs.
Total Points Over 182.5
$1.90
New Zealand Breakers vs Melbourne United
Spark Arena, Saturday 5:30pm AEDT
Another big clash in Round 17 is the Breakers against United. Both teams are in good form and both are fighting for a Playoffs spot.
Despite a comfortable 94-87 win over Adelaide in Round 16, United dropped out of the Top 6 and with just two games left, they’ll need to beat at least one of New Zealand or Adelaide in the run home to have a chance of reaching the Playoffs. With Goulding, Tucker and Rathan-Mayes up and firing, they are capable of matching it with the best teams in the league, and will be a dangerous opponent if they can make it.
But first it’s a battle with the Breakers who are also starting to tick along nicely. They smashed the Bullets on Thursday night (99-71) and got extended minutes across their entire bench which bodes well for player management heading into the Playoffs. Their soft run home ensures they’ll be in the mix this season.
United arguably have more on the line in this game but the Breakers at home is a tough prospect. I think the home side can get it done, and leave United hanging on the edge into the final game of the season.
Cairns Taipans vs Brisbane Bullets
Cairns Convention Centre, Saturday 8:00pm AEDT
The Taipans will be disappointed to come back from Melbourne without the points against the Phoenix on Wednesday night. They hit the lead deep into the 4th quarter but an 11-0 run late saw the Phoenix get home 85-80.
The snakes will be happy to be home and a softer matchup here against the Bullets who were thumped by the Wildcats (99-71) on Thursday night.
The Taipans will be desperate to hold onto second place on the ladder with the Breakers breathing down their necks, subject to the result earlier in the day. The Taipans have everything to play for here while the Bullets are just happy to do their final tour around the country before winding up a rather forgettable season.
The line is a hefty 10.5 but I expect the snakes to win and win well.
Cairns Taipans -10.5
$1.91
Tasmania JackJumpers vs Perth Wildcats
MyState Bank Arena, Sunday 2:00pm AEDT
What a huge game this is in the context of the 2022-23 NBL season!
The JackJumpers and the Wildcats go at it on Sunday afternoon at “The Nest” in Tasmania, where the winner will likely play finals and the loser might be in trouble.
The JackJumpers played one sensational quarter and three horrible ones against the Kings on Friday night. They jumped out of the blocks to lead by 11 at quarter time, yet somehow midway through the 3rd they found themselves behind by double that margin in a massive swing. The JJs are normally very consistent with their intensity but something went awfully wrong after the first break. They couldn’t buy a three with imports Josh Magette and Milton Doyle combining to go 1 from 9 from the arc in troubling signs.
Credit to the Kings who found their championship-winning mojo, but the JJs will have to dig deep and bounce back here if they want to book their second Playoffs berth in their second season.
Meanwhile Perth are heating up and seem to be firing on all cylinders right now. They smashed Illawarra (106-86) with Bryce Cotton putting up a monstrous 40 points with 7 from 11 from three-point land.
The JackJumpers would kill for that shooting percentage at the moment.
This will be a classic battle of strong offence versus strong defence. The JJs will want to turn it into a scrap, while the Wildcats will be looking to move the ball down the court and score fluently.
The only concern for the Wildcats might be workload, with Cotton playing 38 minutes and four of their starters on court for over 30 minutes against the Hawks.
The bookies have opened with Tasmania as favourites, so first instinct is there’s value in Perth. But we’ll go with a tight game, which will suit the JJs, as we expect the pressure to be hot all afternoon.
Sydney Kings vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
Qudos Bank Arena, Sunday 4:00pm AEDT
The Sydney Kings started slow in Hobart but were sublime after quarter-time as they rattled the JackJumpers 91-77 after only scoring 14 points in the first quarter. Dejan Vasiljevic has a love-hate relationship with Tasmania but he bombed 24 points after quarter-time including 5 from 8 from the three to again crush Tasmanian hearts.
However the Kings have winners everywhere with MVP favourite Xavier Cooks, Derrick Walton Jr and Jaylin Galloway all in good form.
For the Phoenix, they were great against the Taipans on Wednesday night, but they may still need to win one more game to reach the Playoffs. It’s a tough ask to think they can knock off the champs at home here.
I fully expect the Kings to gather momentum into a big finals campaign with a comfortable win.
Cairns Taipans vs Adelaide 36ers
Cairns Convention Centre, Monday 7:30pm AEDT
The Taipans and the 36ers will finish off the round on Monday night. The snakes are at home and will be wanting a win to secure a top two spot with New Zealand challenging in third place.
Keanu Pinder copped a stray elbow in the match against Melbourne on Wednesday and has been sidelined for the rest of Round 17 action. It's a shame for the star as he was just working his way back from injury. They'll want him right and raring to go in the Playoffs.
Adelaide don't have much to play for here after drifting off the pace in recent weeks and they will be disappointed to miss the finals after their pre-season hype when they knocked off the Phoenix Suns in the US.
Despite the loss of Pinder, I like the look of the -5.5 point line for the Taipans here to finish Round 17 on a winning note.
Cairns Taipans -5.5
$1.90
